Our latest poll projects a commanding lead for the National People's Power (NPP) in Sri Lanka's 2024 Parliamentary Election, signaling a potential shift in the nation's political landscape. The NPP is on track to win approximately 124 seats out of 225, positioning them well ahead of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which trails with an estimated 53 seats.
A significant shift in Sri Lanka's political landscape may be on the horizon as our latest poll projects a commanding lead for the National People's Power (NPP) in the upcoming 2024 Parliamentary Election. The NPP is estimated to secure approximately 124 (+/- 7) seats out of 225, signaling a potential overhaul of the nation's governance. Trailing behind is the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), expected to win about 53 seats. These findings suggest a dramatic change in voter sentiment that could redefine the country's political future.
📊 Forecast: https://t.co/CGLGkygfDW: General Election 2024 Sri Lanka 🇱🇰:
— Numbers.lk (@numberslka) November 11, 2024
🧭 NPP - 124 (+/- 7)
☎️ SJB - 53 (+/- 5)
🐘 NDF - 24 ( +/- 5)
🏠 ITAK - 11 (+/- 3)
🌷 SLPP - 2 (+/- 2)
⭐️SB - 2 (+/- 2)
🏳️Others - 9 (+/- 3)
The results are based on an online survey conducted from… pic.twitter.com/SwvMeNSWHH
The poll highlights the NPP's robust standing across diverse voter demographics. The leftist party's emphasis on anti-corruption and economic transparency appears to resonate widely among the electorate. If these projections hold, the NPP would secure a firm foothold in parliament, setting the stage for substantial influence over future policy decisions.
With 53 seats projected, the SJB stands as the second-largest party in the race. However, the significant gap with the NPP underscores a loss of ground for this main opposition party from the last parliament. Despite an active campaign focused on economic reform and national stability, the numbers suggest the SJB's appeal may be limited beyond its core base.
The National Democratic Front (NDF) is projected to secure around 24 seats (±5). The NDF's support base largely consists of prominent established parliamentary figures seeking a new platform. Polling indicates that the NDF will secure approximately 10% of the vote, picking up seats in key districts.
Representing the Tamil-majority Northern and Eastern provinces, Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) is projected to capture approximately 11 seats (±3). This steady figure reflects ITAK's firm voter base in regions where issues of Tamil self-governance and regional development remain central. ITAK could improve its parliamentary position by gaining additional seats in the Eastern Province. In districts like Trincomalee, where 3-5 parties are equally competitive, a few thousand votes could determine whether a party secures one seat or three.
Our poll suggests that the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) will experience a sharp decline from the 145 seats it secured in the last parliamentary election, with only 2 seats projected (±2). Once a dominant force led by the Rajapaksa family, the SLPP has seen its support evaporate amid public dissatisfaction over economic instability and recent political crises. The decision of former SLPP strong candidates to either refrain from contesting or to run under the NDF banner has further diminished the party's prospects.
The results are based on an online survey conducted from November 7th to 11th, 2024, with a sample of 870 Sri Lankan adults. In this survey, we asked participants which party they plan to support in the upcoming parliamentary election and whom they voted for in the recent presidential election. The responses were stratified by age, electoral district, and voting preference in the 2024 presidential election. This data was then fed into our district-wise seat calculation model, which incorporates voter turnout projections based on trends observed in the 2010 and 2020 general elections, both held shortly after presidential elections. This poll has a margin of error of ±5% at a 95% confidence level.
One key insight from the poll is that many NPP candidates have low name recognition. Gender appears to play a significant role in voters' choice of candidates for preferential votes, particularly among women. Due to this trend, female candidates on the NPP list are more likely to gain higher support, as indicated by the responses. Additionally, candidates assigned preferential vote numbers 1 or 2 are frequently chosen by respondents, giving them a distinct advantage according to polling data.
Voter turnout will be crucial in determining the election's outcome. According to some simulations (fewer than 1%), if turnout drops below the low 60s, the NPP could secure more than 150 seats in parliament, achieving a two-thirds majority.
More to follow…
