Numbers.lk's First Pre-Election Poll: AKD Emerges as Frontrunner, But Falls Short of the Crucial 50% - Numbers.lk
Numbers.lk's latest pre-election poll results point to Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the frontrunner in Sri Lanka's upcoming presidential election, though no candidate has a clear majority
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04 May, 2024 | 03:06 a.m.
Numbers.lk Team
Numbers.lk's first pre-election poll results point to Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the frontrunner in Sri Lanka's upcoming presidential election, though no candidate has secured a clear majority yet. The poll surveyed 2,048 adults across all 22 electoral districts online from April 4-18, and it has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
According to the survey finding, Anura Kumara Dissanayaka leads the presidential race with 46% support among Sri Lankan adults. He holds a substantial lead over Sajith Premadasa, who has 22% support, and the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who trails with 18%. However, with 10% of voters still undecided and another 4% backing other candidates, the race remains open for potential shifts before election day.
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Anuna Kumara Dissanayake's core strengths lie with Sri Lanka's youngest voters, securing a staggering 67% support among first-time voters. He also leads comfortably among the under-40 crowd. Premadasa counters with a base among older generations whose highest educational attainment is below A/L levels. However, Premadasa significantly lags with first-time voters compared to the other top candidates. Only 3% of these crucial first time voters say they plan to vote for the SJB's Sajith Premadasa. At the same time, incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe captures 10% approval in this group. Another 10% of first-time voters report intending to vote for other candidates outside the top three. And a further 10% remain undecided, leaving a substantial pool of young votes still up for grabs.
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When it comes to older voters, support for the traditional candidates rises along with age. Sajith Premadasa's strongest base comes from voters aged 41 and above whose highest educational attainment is below A/L levels. In this demographic, Sajith Premadasa leads with 38% support, while Anura Kumara Dissanayake could muster only 28% backing. Ranil Wickremesinghe captures 21% of these older, comparatively less educated demographic while 14% remain undecided.
This cohort represents by far the largest voter block in the country, with over 40% of Sri Lanka's total electorate falling into the category of being 41 or older with education below A/L level. Their sheer numbers give outsized importance to whichever candidate can most effectively court these more traditionalist voters with modest educational credentials.
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The findings are based on a survey of 2,048 adult residents of Sri Lanka, conducted online from April 4th to April 18th, 2024. Responses were collected via an online form with questions presented in all three national languages: Sinhala, Tamil, and English. The survey employed a stratified sampling methodology using Sri Lanka's population as the sampling frame. Records were first stratified by district to ensure representative geographic coverage. The sample was then further stratified based on key demographic variables including 2019 voting preference, race, gender, and age to adjust for potential non-coverage bias.
The sampling procedure and stratification weighting yield an overall margin of sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level for the full unweighted sample of 2,048 Sri Lankan adults. This margin of error accounts for design effects from the weighting process.
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