In Sri Lanka's upcoming election, the second preference vote is expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Our pre-election poll, conducted from August 9 to August 23, gathered responses from 3,900 participants across all three languages. As a 3rd question in the poll, we asked: "Who will be your second preference for President in the 2024 Presidential Election?" the results provide key insights into voter preferences.
In Sri Lanka's presidential election system, a candidate needs to secure over 50% of the valid votes to win outright. However, if no candidate achieves this majority, the second and third preference votes come into play.
In upcoming presidential election, the second & third preference vote is expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Our pre-election poll, conducted from August 9 to August 23, gathered responses from 3,900 participants across all three languages. As a 3rd question in the poll, we asked: "Who will be your second preference for President in the 2024 Presidential Election?"
Following is the breakdown of the results with respect to preferred candidate (1st vote):
A key finding of the survey is that Anura Kumara Dissanayake's supporters are the least likely to cast a second preferential vote, with 65% indicating they have no plans to do so. Among AKD voters 11% says they will cast the 2nd vote to Ranil Wickremesinghe, while a statistically similar 9% says they will cast thier 2nd vote to Sajith Premadasa.
Among Sajith Premadasa's voters, only 30% say they have no plans to cast a second vote. Overall, 32% say they will cast their second vote for Ranil, while 29% of Sajith's voters plan to cast their second vote for Anura Kumara Dissanayake.These figures indicate that, since the percentages going to the other two candidates are very similar, any scenario in which either Anura Kumara Dissanayake or Sajith Premadasa comes in third does not significantly impact the chances of the first-round leader winning the presidency. In other words, whoever has the highest number of votes in the first count is most likely to win.
If Ranil Wickremesinghe comesat third in the upcoming election race, the survey results suggest an interesting scenario. In the event that the incumbent president does not secure one of the top two spots, the first-place candidate may not necessarily win the presidency.
Among those planning to vote for Ranil, 35% say they would give their second vote to Sajith Premadasa, while only 22% would choose Anura Kumara Dissanayake, creating a 13% gap between Sajith and AKD among Ranil's second-choice voters.
For instance, if Ranil secures 25% of the vote, Sajith would gain an additional 3% over AKD from these second-preference votes. If AKD wins 36% of the first vote and Sajith 34%, the second-round vote count could see Sajith reach 43%, while AKD stands at 42%, resulting in a narrow win for Sajith at 51% to 49%.
The Election Commission and media must educate voters on this possibility and clarify that the first-round vote count does not necessarily determine the final winner, in order to prevent confusion or unrest after the election.
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