Poll Results: AKD Leading, Ranil Advances

According to the survey, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) leads the race with 43% of the vote. Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe has secured 27% of the electorate's support, overtaking Sajith Premadasa, who now holds 22%. Namal Rajapaksa, who recently entered the race, holds 3% of voter support.

The poll indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, as most of the previously undecided voters have now made up their minds. Numbers.lk's first pre-election poll conducted in April showed that 10% of voters were undecided at the time. Most of these undecided voters have now shifted in favor of incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The election is expected to be closely contested, with the likelihood of the outcome depending on second and third preference votes, a first in Sri Lankan presidential election history.

Preference Vote Dynamics

With no candidate expected to secure more than 50% of the vote, the election may hinge on the second and third preference votes. In such a scenario, the top two candidates will remain in the race while other candidates are eliminated. The second and third preference votes of the eliminated candidates will then be counted and added to the initial tally of the top two candidates.

In the poll, voters were asked about their intentions regarding their second preference vote. Overall, close to 50% of voters said they have no intention of casting a preference vote. However, the poll reveals that if Dissanayake and Wickremesinghe occupy the first two spots, only 27% among the eliminated candidates' voters intend not to cast a second vote, while 31% would prefer Wickremesinghe and 26% would favor Dissanayake. Given that the margin between these two candidates is around 5%, the impact of the added tally will only amount to about a 1-2% difference to the initial vote. Therefore, unless the election becomes very tight, the outcome will be determined by the initial totals.