Numbers.lk Final Pre-Election Poll: AKD Leads by Double Digits; Sajith and Ranil in Statistical Tie - Numbers.lk
The final pre-election poll by numbers.lk reveals a commanding lead for Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) of the National People's Power (NPP) in the upcoming Sri Lankan presidential race. AKD has secured a significant 11% advantage over his closest rival, leaving both the opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe trailing by double digits.
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18 September, 2024 | 17:08 p.m.
Staff Writer
According to the finding of Numbers.lk's final pre-election poll, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) of the National People's Power (NPP) leads the Sri Lankan presidential election race with 40% support among likely voters. Sajith Premadasa follows with 29% support, while incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe has 25% support. Namal Rajapaksa, garners only 3% support among likely voters.
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Compared to the Numbers.lk's previous poll conducted last month, AKD led among adults with 43%, while Ranil Wickremesinghe had 28% support. Both AKD and Wickremesinghe have since seen a 3% decline among likely voters. In contrast, Sajith Premadasa has gained 7%, a surge that may be attributed to his recent endorsement by the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) and the projected low voter turnout for the election.
Preference Vote Dynamics
With no candidate projected to secure more than 50% of the vote, the election is poised to be decided by second and third preferential votes. In this scenario, the top two candidates will remain, and the second and third preferences from eliminated candidates will be redistributed.
When voters were asked about their second preference:
Overall Sentiment: Over 60% indicated they do not intend to cast a second preference vote. If Dissanayake and Premadasa Lead: Among voters whose first-choice candidates are eliminated, 41% still won't cast a second preference, 32% would choose Premadasa, and 10% would favor Dissanayake. In practical terms, for every 10 votes not initially for Premadasa or Dissanayake, Premadasa gains 3, and Dissanayake gains 1.
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If Dissanayake and Wickremesinghe Lead: For every 20 votes from eliminated candidates, 3 would go to Dissanayake and 7 to Wickremesinghe.
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These preferential votes could have the influence the final outcome of the election However, unless the race tightens further, the initial vote totals are highly likely to determine the winner.
Note: With no prior data on preferential voting in Sri Lankan presidential elections, these online response estimates may differ significantly from the actual election results, particularly regarding the number of people who indicate they will cast a preferential vote compared to those who actually do. However, the research team believes that while the percentage of preferential votes from the total votes cast may vary, the ratio of preferences among the candidates is unlikely to change significantly.
Voter Turnout and Enthusiasm
The upcoming election in Sri Lanka is shaping up to be heavily influenced by voter turnout and enthusiasm. The responds participated survey reveals that a 84% of respondents are highly likely to vote, while 10% are highly unlikely, among which most of them being overseas voters.
Voter enthusiasm varies significantly among different groups, with supporters of Anura Kumara Dissanayake from the 2019 election showing the highest enthusiasm. Those who voted for Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa in 2019 reflect proportions similar to the actual 2019 results. Notably, 2015 voters for Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena display a 1:3 proportion among the survey respondents, indicating reduced enthusiasm from Mahinda Rajapaksa voters in 2015. This disparity in voter enthusiasm could significantly impact turnout and, consequently, the election results.
Methodology
Between September 9th and 16th, 2024, we surveyed 5,335 adults from all 22 electoral districts in Sri Lanka. Responses were collected online through targeted Facebook advertisements designed to reach a diverse audience and minimize selection bias. Responses from voluntary participants from Numbers.lk social media, Facebook, and Twitter were also collected separately and stratified, forming a secondary dataset. The survey used a disproportionate stratified random sampling method based on 2019 voting preferences, ethnicity, gender, income, and age. This methodology was employed to mitigate potential biases and ensure a representative sample of the Sri Lankan electorate. The margin of error for the poll, taking the design effect into consideration, is ±5%.
The final pre-election poll indicates a significant advantage for Anura Kumara Dissanayake in the upcoming election. However, with no candidate expected to secure an outright majority, preferential votes and voter turnout will play a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
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