🌷split : Ranil 2024 vs Namal 2029

⭕ The Politburo of SLPP has decided to field their own candidate in the upcoming election.

⭕ However, 92 MPs, mostly from SLPP, met with RW and reportedly pledged their support to him.

⭕ These figures could be higher as some MPs are overseas.

⭕ SLPP's popularity nose-dived with the economic crisis, and only hard-core MR fans remain with the party.

⭕ Recent polls indicate that SJB and the NPP have the majority of the support at this point in time.

⭕Even if RW somehow manages to win the presidential election (he may need a large chunk of SJB to crossover), it's abundantly clear that it will be very difficult to get an outright majority in the upcoming parliamentary election. Most probably, it will be a three-way split between NPP, SJB, and Ranilists, making it extremely difficult to govern.

⭕ The calculation of SLPP MPs is that they are hoping Ranil could win by mustering enough support from SJB crossovers. Namal 2029 is far away for them, and MR is not getting any younger.

⭕ Namal's political future hinges on Ranil's performance in this election. The best scenario for Namal is Ranil losing, followed by five years of stagnation and a three-way split in parliament, which could make Namal a clear favorite as MR's son in 2029.

⭕ If Ranil wins this election, it could spell the end for the SLPP, and Namal's political future might be on hold for at least another 10 years.

⭕ Dhammika Perera is ready to run as the presidential candidate for SLPP, but if they feel like Dhammika Perera is not enough to secure SLPP's political future (at least 15%-20% of the vote), Namal may contest this election himself with his father's blessing, creating a four-way split. This way, the SLPP and the Rajapaksa brand may live to fight another day..

Interesting times...