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Why Rooftop Solar Proposed Rate Cannot Be Increased

⭕ In the month of January, according to PUCSL figures, the avg. generation cost per unit (thermal, coal, and others) ranged between LKR 14–26, with a monthly average of ~LKR 19.

⭕ Daytime generation costs are even lower, as expensive thermal plants operate only during peak hours.

⭕ Paying rooftop solar rates higher than the average means future bills will rise for all consumers.

⭕ With solar panel costs declining, locking in high tariffs today = consumers overpay tomorrow.

⭕ Logical path forward: battery-backed hybrid solar models with time-based tariffs to reward peak-time contribution. However, the proposed ~LKR 46 won't economically incentivize rooftop solar customers to invest — this should be higher to drive adoption.

#SriLanka #RooftopSolar

30 Mar 2025, 13:45

Comments36

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  1. The benchmark cost should be based on marginal cost, not average cost. Any new electricity generation with a cost below the marginal cost will drive the average cost down.

    over 1 year ago
  2. Navindu Abeyrathna

    over 1 year ago

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over 1 year ago
  • Yasitha Weerasinghe

    over 1 year agoLikes:1
    1. Wibhashvin Ravihansa for me this is rubbish. In the month of february CEB made around 10lkr per unit lose. And solar basically displaces the furnace oil and diesel in order to achieve the 70% renewable energy target by 2030. Cost for furnace oil is around 45/unit and diesel 75/unit respectively. Rational decision is yours.

      over 1 year ago
    2. Yasitha Weerasinghe this reply i copied from number.lk. I think its relatable ! And in fact reaching this 70 % of renewable energy target through rooftop solar panels is unsustainable neh! //1. Solar displaces not only expensive oil but also the much cheaper sources like major hydro (around ~5 LKR) and mini hydro & wind (~12 LKR) during the daytime. What is currently happening is that the CEB is asking mini hydro plants to curtail their power input during the day because solar generation is high. Solar essentially displaces generation sources controlled by the CEB—whether it's oil, hydro, or wind. This is why using the average cost makes more sense, especially for January, since terminal oil usage is low, and solar displaces a mix of energy sources during the daytime. 2. Advocates like you must recognize that solar alone cannot ensure reliability without complementary controllable sources like hydro, thermal, or storage. A stable power grid requires a generation mix that can be controlled in real time to match supply and demand. Solar is variable and lacks dispatchability. So, increasing solar penetration without proper grid visibility, forecasting, and backup sources risks blackouts. Advocating for blindly adding solar to the grid, while asking to pay a premium, makes no sense.//

      over 1 year ago
    3. Wibhashvin Ravihansa i read this. Renewable target is not gonna achieve only through solar. Wind is a big part. But we have not achieved at least 10% of the country's solar potential by now. So there is more room for significant expansion provided with adequate infrastructure by CEB. Lower tariffs will significantly discourage the movement.

      over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • Solar / Hydro One Time Investment for Long term Battery Backed Hybrid Battery should promote with attractive Rate since oil/Coal will vairy according to external factors

    over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • Current bill අඩු වෙයි එහෙනම් 😂

    over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • Numbers.lk What is the per unit costs a. Coal b. Diesel c. naptha d. Furnace oil.?

    over 1 year ago
  • This is why pumped hydro is a solution, or else sell the excess peak to India. Payback period for battery solution at this rate increases significantly. And what's the lifetime of a battery? And the dollar outflow for imports of batteries? Stupid AF

    over 1 year ago
    1. Tharanga Wijayaratna pumped hydro takes 10 years to build

      over 1 year ago
    2. Vidhura Ralapanawe 1. still a govt can fund such a project. Also once it's done, no more dollar outflow unlike diesel. 2. Who has done the feasibility test in SL that says 10 years? 3. How many individuals can fund a rooftop solar vs. the incremental cost when battery pack comes in it? (the current suggestion) 4. The lifetime of a batterypack?

      over 1 year ago
    3. Tharanga Wijayaratna 1. The government has no funds to fund such a project. Even ADB has declined to fund this as they have no capacity to lend such amount under current context. It requires private capital. 2. Slides presented by Dr Wijekoon Banda on 27th Feb government event (sponsored by Huawei), shows the completion date as 2034. So it is 9 years not 10. 3. Individual rooftops are not the solution, but utility scale storage. 4. Lifetime of a BESS is 20 years,

      over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • Such a dumb argument. 1. Solar displaces oil. It's the marginal cost that matters not average cost. 2. Oil is not used only Sunday's at most. Here is the last Thursday generation curve with 450 MW of oil which includes furnace oil plants at 45 and diesel plants at 75. That's what solar displaces

    over 1 year agoLikes:14
    1. Numbers.lk

      1. Solar displaces not only expensive oil but also the much cheaper sources like major hydro (around ~5 LKR) and mini hydro & wind (~12 LKR) during the daytime. What is currently happening is that the CEB is asking mini hydro plants to curtail their power input during the day because solar generation is high. Solar essentially displaces generation sources controlled by the CEB—whether it's oil, hydro, or wind. This is why using the average cost makes more sense, especially for January, since terminal oil usage is low, and solar displaces a mix of energy sources during the daytime. 2. Advocates like you must recognize that solar alone cannot ensure reliability without complementary controllable sources like hydro, thermal, or storage. A stable power grid requires a generation mix that can be controlled in real time to match supply and demand. Solar is variable and lacks dispatchability. So, increasing solar penetration without proper grid visibility, forecasting, and backup sources risks blackouts. Advocating for blindly adding solar to the grid, while asking to pay a premium, makes no sense.

      over 1 year agoLikes:12
    2. Numbers.lk where have I said its only solar? In which sense does average cost makes sense? I mean the duspkaced hydro is used at the night. Its NOT list! That's the dumbest number argument made. Third, the comparison against coal and oil must include the exchange rate as well. All the coal advocates spoke against the Rs 23 solar tariff all the way to 2021, when average cost was lower. Abd now thats the second lowest cost with coal skipping over due to rupee depreciation. Instead if doing lazy math, do some real math. If you don't know how, ask.

      over 1 year agoLikes:2
    3. The idiotic argument here is that it departs from cost reflective tariff. Like CEB, you argue against cost reflective tariff, as if solar should be a charity. This at the same month when state is ready to sign diesel Sahasdhanavi plant at Rs 72/kWh. Didn't hear you say anything about it. Only renewable energy seems to be your problem

      over 1 year agoLikes:4
    4. Vidhura Ralapanawe Above is not maths, but CEB maths! 🤣🤣🤣

      over 1 year ago
    5. Shyam Pathiraja There 're two different ways things operate in CEB .. Cash flow match is different from Profits .. If CEB is a private company SOlar frenzy would have been feasible

      over 1 year ago
    6. 6 more replies
  • Solar Panel Costs are back in the rise after the end of Chinese New Year 2025. And many forecasts say price will come back to pre COVID level in few months. For hybrid tarif to be attractive CEB can allow export in two peak durations of the day instead of one peak then customer can charge during the off peak and re export. If they agree to this model the battery investment will be covered at least 0.5X faster to the original proposal at zero additional burden to CEB.

    over 1 year agoLikes:4
    1. Gayan or they have to give a higher rate for night

      over 1 year agoLikes:1
    2. Numbers.lk

      Gayan Kavirathne yiur source probably talks about minor variations due to supply chain fluctuations. Over a longer time scale, these are irrelevant. https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/blog/decrease-in-solar-costs

      over 1 year ago
    3. Numbers.lk Yes long trend shows continues decline in Solar panel price. Yet, new forces are in play for the projected increase of solar panels. * China government reduced tax refund from 13% to 9% on PV * High Demand vs Limited supply of high quality Silicon wafers. * Jan 2024 showed a downward trend vs Jan 2025 is a rising trend where supply chain characteristics remained similar. https://www.pvxchange.com/Price-Index

      over 1 year agoLikes:2
    4. Rukshan Sathyananda That also is an option which I think they will give 54/- unit, the price determined by the price determining commitee. (Just hope the current price is set as a bargaining attempt.)

      over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • Bruno Diwakara anything to say about this?

    over 1 year agoLikes:1
  • solar panel cost declining?

    over 1 year ago
    1. Numbers.lk

      Sanfar Anm https://x.com/numberslka/status/1775423070108631359?t=wTv9aTCElER_PQ9zfsdzaA&s=19

      over 1 year agoLikes:6
    2. Numbers.lk oh please... Yes solar panels are decreasing as a larger trend. What is relevant for short term pricing is what happens in the next 6 months. Solar panels used to be US 9 cents/Watt, now already at US 11 cents/Watt which will increase across the year. Does Wood Mackenzie projections good enough for you? https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/02/26/solar-module-prices-will-soon-go-back-to-over-0-12-w/

      over 1 year ago
    3. Numbers.lk https://www.pv-tech.org/pv-price-watch-chinas-module-prices-reach-rmb0-75-w

      over 1 year ago
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